Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ latest voting intention poll in Great Britain finds the Conservative Party leading by 2%—the same lead as in last week’s poll. Altogether, the full numbers (with the changes from last week in parentheses) are as follows:
Conservative 38% (–)
Labour 36% (–)
Liberal Democrat 9% (-1)
Green 6% (–)
Scottish National Party 4% (–)
Reform UK 4% (–)
Plaid Cymru 0% (-1)
Other 2% (+1)
When those who say they do not know how they would vote in a General Election are included, the Conservative Party leads by 1%. After weighting by likelihood to vote, 13% of the sample say they do not know how they would vote, including 12% of those who voted Conservative in December 2019 and 6% of those who voted Labour.
This week’s sample has 58% of respondents saying they would be ‘certain to vote’ if there were to be a General Election tomorrow. Those who voted Conservative in 2019 (74%) are more likely to say they are ‘certain to vote’ than those who voted for Labour in 2019 (58%).
Healthcare remains the issue respondents consider most likely to determine how they would vote in the next General Election. When asked to select up to three issues which would most determine how they would vote in a General Election, if there were to be one tomorrow, respondents select healthcare (53%), the economy (42%), immigration (30%), the environment (24%), coronavirus restrictions (23%), and education (21%).
If a General Election were to take place in the next six months, 35% of respondents expect the outcome to be a Conservative Party majority (up 1%). 18% expect a Labour majority (down 2%), 17% expect a Conservative-led minority Government (up 1%), and 6% expect a Labour-led minority Government (down 1%). 57% of 2019 Conservative Party voters think the Conservatives would achieve a majority (up 1%), whereas 43% of 2019 Labour voters expect that Labour would win a majority (down 5%).
The Government’s net competency rating is -19% in this week’s poll, decreasing one point since last week. Altogether, 24% find the Government competent (down 1%), 43% find the Government incompetent (no change), and 25% find the Government neither competent nor incompetent (up 1%).
Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s net approval rating stands at -10%, a figure which has not changed in the past week. This week’s poll finds 46% disapproving (up 1%) of his overall job performance, against 36% approving (up 1%).
Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak receives a net approval rating of +17%, representing a three-point increase compared to last week. 42% say they approve of Rishi Sunak’s job performance (up 2%), while 25% disapprove (down 1%).
Keir Starmer’s net approval rating has decreased by one point in the past week, now standing at -10%. 36% disapprove of Keir Starmer’s job performance (no change), while 26% approve (down 1%). Meanwhile, 33% neither approve nor disapprove of Starmer’s job performance (no change).
Between Boris Johnson and Keir Starmer, 41% say they think Boris Johnson would be a better Prime Minister for the United Kingdom at this moment than Keir Starmer, the same result as in last week’s poll. Conversely, 32% think Keir Starmer would be the better Prime Minister when compared to Boris Johnson (up 1%).
More specifically, Boris Johnson continues to lead over Keir Starmer as being the one who best embodies the following descriptions: ‘can build a strong economy’ (44% to 28%), ‘stands up for the interests of the United Kingdom’ (42% to 32%), ‘can tackle the coronavirus pandemic’ (40% to 27%), and ‘knows how to get things done’ (40% to 29%).
Keir Starmer leads over Boris Johnson when it comes to best embodying the descriptions of ‘being in good physical and mental health’ (41% to 26%), ‘represents change’ (38% to 35%), and ‘is willing to work with other parties when possible’ (36% to 34%).
Meanwhile, pluralities of respondents say they do not know which of the two ‘tells the truth’ (46%), ‘is creative’ (43%), or ‘prioritises the environment’ (42%).
Further, 33% say Rishi Sunak (down 2%) and 33% say Boris Johnson (down 2%) would be the better Prime Minister for the UK at this moment, while 34% are unsure (up 4%).
Rishi Sunak holds a six-point lead over Keir Starmer for the better Prime Minister at this moment. Between Keir Starmer and Rishi Sunak, 39% think Rishi Sunak would be the better Prime Minister for the United Kingdom (down 1%), against 33% who think Keir Starmer would be (down 1%).