Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ latest GB voting intention poll from yesterday finds the Conservative Party leading by 7%. Compared to our previous voting intention poll on the 8th of July, this result represents a slight 2% increase in the lead held by the Conservative Party, a difference which falls within the margin of error. The full numbers for our voting intention poll (with their changes from 8 July in parentheses) are as follows:
Conservative 44% (–)
Labour 37% (-2)
Liberal Democrat 8% (+1)
Scottish National Party 4% (–)
Green 4% (-1)
Plaid Cymru 0% (–)
Other 2% (–)
Likelihood to vote decreased by 4%, with 59% now saying they would be certain to vote in the event of a general election in the near future, down from 63% last week. These figures are somewhat lower than in mid-February, when 66% of respondents said they were certain to vote, but they have nonetheless remained relatively stable in recent weeks. It is important to note that, throughout the pandemic, we modified our likelihood to vote question to emphasise a hypothetical general election when it is safe for an election to be held again.
Meanwhile, Prime Minister Boris Johnson saw a 5% increase in his approval rating, which now stands at a net +10%, up from 5% last week. This week, 46% said they approve of Johnson’s job performance since becoming Prime Minister, and 36% disapprove. These figures constitute a return to the Prime Minister’s approval rating three weeks ago, when he enjoyed a net +11% approval rating, suggesting that the past two weeks were particularly punishing for the Prime Minister, due to the initial stress of the significant easing of the lockdown on the 4th of July.
Meanwhile, the approval rating for Labour Leader Keir Starmer fell by 4% this week. The Labour Leader currently enjoys 39% approval and 21% disapproval, translating to a net +18% approval rating, down from +22% last week. As in previous weeks, roughly a third of respondents (34%) continue to neither approve nor disapprove of his job performance since becoming Labour Leader.
Likewise, the Prime Minister’s figures in a straight contest against Starmer also improved this week, with Johnson now enjoying a 15% lead, up from 11% last week. When asked who would be the better Prime Minister for the United Kingdom at the moment, 48% of respondents selected Boris Johnson and 33% selected Keir Starmer. A significant 19% said they do not know.
Despite the announcement of a raft of measures to support the recovery of the UK economy, Chancellor Rishi Sunak’s approval rating fell slightly this week from net +41% approval to net +39% approval. It is worth remarking, however, that this change falls within the margin of error of our poll, and that Sunak’s net approval is four times the size of Johnson’s net approval, and twice the size of Starmer’s.
For the second week in a row, Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak each polled at 38% in a straight contest over who would be the better Prime Minister for the UK at this moment. These figures represent the erosion of Johnson’s 9% lead two weeks ago, and his 13% lead three weeks ago. Despite the improvement in the Prime Minister’s approval rating and in the Conservatives’ voting intention figures, it appears that the public increasingly views the Chancellor as a desirable replacement for the Prime Minister, and that our figures from last week were not outliers influenced by our poll being live when the Chancellor announced the decision to cut stamp duty.
Furthermore, Sunak’s lead over Starmer in a straight contest grew by 2% this week, with the Chancellor now enjoying a 10% lead over the Labour Leader. Although still not a wide as the Prime Minister’s 15% lead over the Labour Leader, the pattern from the past few weeks suggests that the Chancellor’s name recognition continues to grow, allowing him to command leads over Starmer that are not much smaller than those commanded by the Prime Minister himself.